Many readers are asking for short term analysis on Bitcoin.
Here is the continuous Bitcoin future daily chart.
1. Bitcoin experienced the classic 75% crash from its all time high near 20,000.
2. Since the spike low back in February it has tried hard to settle down but just like any other market, post crash price actions are usually more bearish.
3. The down channel (blue parallel lines) like price action was terminated with channel mid reversal (blue arrow) and false breakout against first quarter low.
4. Breakout of the channel was meant with a strong selloff back down to retest the channel top and the first quarter low (green arrow).
Short Term Outlook
a. A clean breakout above the resistance trend line (green line) will likely give a run to target around 10,000.
b. IF, BTC manages to stay above 2nd quarter high after #a happened, it will in turn create the potential of what is often called Adam and Eve bottom. Whether the pattern will work out is too early to even think about it since the breakout part has not even happened.
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Not much changed since I last posted the weekly chart of Amazon.
But if you know how to engage three pushes up, you would know what to do on the daily.
Line in the sand is the orange zone, that turns into resistance will likely give us a move back down to the weekly targets mentioned last time.
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Before more downside is possible, takes care of the “unfinished business” first.
Here is a weekly chart of Amazon.
Making measured moves in Amazon is part of its habit all the time.
It is right on time to enter its correction / consolidation phase until the election is over.
The key support areas are highlighted in the chart.
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Let’s guess when and where QQQ and Emini Nasdaq 100 will end this rally.
The chart below is just an update of what I posted last week.
Everything lined up now for a showdown between bulls and bears right above.
Looks like it is going to get this done by either the end of this week or beginning of next.
From there it is more likely than not that we will have a month long consolidation / pullback.
This is a follow-up on my post back on the 21st. This is the same 30-minute chart as of today.
Notice how QQQ (and Emini NQ too) holding up at the up trendline (green line) as support even though there was an external sell shock forced the price to move lower.
And now we have tagged the target (orange zone).
This example is a classic case that you hear all these bearish opinions publicized by the media, yet the markets are doing what they are supposed to do. Then the media (and TV personalities) blame the market for moving higher. Instead of telling the truth that they do not know what they are talking about, they make up more excuses to confuse the public.
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I was talking about Nasdaq 100 (QQQ and NQ) is ready for gap and go to much higher price level in my real-time commentary.
Here are some of the reasons directly from the chart.
On 30-min QQQ chart:
1. Down channel established as of Aug 13th (blue lines)
2. Intention to produce 3 pushes down (red lines)
3. Bounce from 3rd push materialized but blocked from going higher by the gap and forced to go lower when price re-entered the channel (red down arrow)
4. Up trendline established as of Aug 15th
5. Retest of swing low from Aug 15th also aligned with test of down channel.
6. On Aug 20th closed above channel, as long as price stays above the channel, or a bull flag on higher timeframe, will give us the last swing high (orange zone)
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Here is a daily chart of Tesla.
1. Channel (blue lines) in the making since the late 2016 rally. Confirmed by mid 2017 test of channel top and subsequent consolidation.
2. Violent down trendline (red line, left) break gave us the target (red down arrow).
3. 2nd down trendline (red line, right) break gave us test of all time high and rejected. Potential trendline breakout failure.
4. Channel support (orange zone) down at 260 to 280.
5. Interestingly, Tesla is still in daily uptrend.
Struggle around the 2nd down trendline likely until clean setup of a bottom formed on weekly, or, breakdown below support zone that points to a flush below 200 likely.
Since last post on S&P500 back on 15th July, it has been almost a month now. It is a good time to see if the projection made back then has worked out as expected. Following is an update 30-minute chart of Emini S&P.
What was expected:
a. Consolidation likely
b. If we see a pullback, the red zone would be the support
What actually happened:
1. 3 weeks of consolidation (light blue zone) where the price keeps getting back to the same starting level (the blue box)
2. Pullback happened at a higher level without touching the support area (red zone)
So what else happened:
3. S&P chose to hold the up trendline (the blue up arrows) giving it a go for new high
4. News shock past 2 days sent S&P back down to the pocket (lime zone) and bounced
What it means is that the up trend is intact with more upside likely.
What we cannot tell is what will happen at the all time high, which is just some 10 points above last week high, if and when S&P finally challenging that.
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